Belt and Road Reboot: Beijing’s Bid to De-Risk Its Global Infrastructure Initiative
Date Published
Nov 6, 2023
Authors
Bradley C. Parks, Ammar A. Malik, Brooke Escobar, Sheng Zhang, Rory Fedorochko, Kyra Solomon, Fei Wang, Lydia Vlasto, Katherine Walsh, and Seth Goodman
Abstract
In this study, we provide myth-busting evidence about the changing nature, scale, and scope of China’s overseas development program. Our analysis is based on the 3.0 version of AidData’s Global Chinese Development Finance (GCDF) dataset, which is a uniquely comprehensive and granular source of information about 20,985 projects committed from 2000-2021 across 165 low- and middle-income countries supported by loans and grants from official sector institutions in China worth more than $1.3 trillion. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, we do not find that Beijing’s annual lending and grant-giving to the developing world has plummeted to nearly zero. It remains the world’s single largest official source of international development finance. Our analysis also reveals new insights about Beijing’s ongoing bid to de-risk the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—and outflank its competitors. We document the specific measures that China is taking to manage three different types of risk in its overseas project portfolio: (1) repayment risk, (2) environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risk, and (3) reputational risk. The G7, we argue, should not underestimate the ambition of Beijing’s ongoing efforts to future-proof its flagship, global infrastructure initiative.
