2022-2023 Archive

Dr. Feldman's thoughts on higher education

The Federal Reserve has significantly tightened monetary policy over the past year, raising concerns that a higher unemployment rate will follow. Some economists have argued that because the job vacancy rate has been well above its prepandemic level, there is plenty of room for vacancies to fall before the unemployment rate must rise. This would allow the Fed to achieve a soft landing and avoid a recession. We argue that a soft landing is possible but less likely than previous studies have suggested. The theoretical arguments supporting a soft landing have relied on a set of common model parameters that is inconsistent with recent empirical estimates in the academic literature.