TargetSmart - William & Mary Poll - Ohio Statewide Wave 2

CONTACT:
Coleman Bass
TargetSmart Communications, LLC
(443) 676-1803
PressPublicPolling@targetsmart.com
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: 10/08/2016
EDITORS NOTE:
Expl ore our i nteractive dashboard with s urvey results a nd voter file data here
NEW PRE-DEBATE TARGETSMART AND WILLIAM & MARY POLL OF OHIO LIKELY VOTERS
-Clinton 43, Trump 40 Latest Survey ShowsOctober 8, 2016 The contest for Ohios 18 electoral votes remains ti ght, according to a new poll of 812 l ikely voters released today by Ta rgetSmart
a nd William & Ma ry. Hi llary Cl inton garners 43 percent of the vote to Donald Trumps 40 percent, with 8 percent of voters b acking Gary Johnson. These
trends a re largely i n-line with TargetSmart a nd William & Ma rys survey from late September, in which 40 percent of likely voters in Ohio backed
Cl i nton and 37 percent s upported Trump.
Thi s is the second poll released by Ta rgetSmart a nd William & Ma ry s ince the political data company and university formed a partnership to conduct
res earch i n key battleground s tates. Ma ny publicly rel eased s urveys use s elf-reported likelihood to vote to i dentify a likely voter sample, screening out
s urvey res pondents who may end up participating, or i ncluding respondents who may not ultimately vote. The l ikely voter model used to weight this
s urvey da ta starts by mirroring all registered voters on the TargetSmart voter file, and then applies a second round of weights based s olely on
res pondents likelihood to vote, as measured by Ta rgetSmarts General El ection Turnout s core, one of many predictive models h oused on the
Ta rgetSmart voter file.
Ra ther than preventing certain registered voters from participating in the survey, our likely voter model puts more weight behind the survey
res ponses of those voters with a demonstrated past behavior of participation, a nd down weights responses from those who are l ess likely to vote,
s a id Ron Rapoport, John Ma rshall Professor of Government at William & Ma ry.
Survey res ults s how Donald Trump continues to struggle with his base, a ttracting just 74 percent of s elf -described Republican voters. On the flip side,
Hi l lary Cl i nton wins the support of 88 percent of self-described Democrats. Independents favor Trump by a narrow 5-point margin (35 percent for
Cl i nton to 40 percent for Trump), but 14 percent of these key s wing voters back Johnson. Trump also l eads a mong men (by 8 points), holding
pa rti cularly s trong a dvantages among white men (by 21 poi nts), married men (by 23 poi nts), a nd men without a college degree (by 17 poi nts). Overall,
whi te voters without a college degree favor Trump by 23 points. Cl intons coalition consists of African Americans (with whom she leads by 74 points),
unma rried voters (by 19 poi nts) a nd college educated women (by 22 poi nts). Cl inton also holds a marginal a dvantage amon g white college graduates
(by 4 poi nts).
Mos t of those surveyed (80 percent) report having watched the first presidential debate and these voters generally believe Cl inton won (62 percent say
s he won, 17 percent s ay Trump won); notably, one-in-three Ohio Republican voters (34 percent) believe Cl inton won the first debate. Moreover, a third
of l i kely Ohi o voters overall (32 pe rcent), as well as independent voters more s pecifically (32 percent), report that Trumps debate performance made
them l ess likely to s upport him.
Our s urvey s uggests that Trumps performance i n the debate itself has been more damaging to his prospects i n Ohio than the s ubsequent fallout over
Al i cia Ma chado and his ta x returns, said Ta rgetSmart pollster Ben Lazarus.
Mos t voters have seen, heard or read something a bout Machado (69 percent) and Trumps tax returns (85 percent) a ccording to the survey. However,
onl y 1-i n-5 voters (21 percent) report that information a bout Ma chado has made them less inclined to vote for Trump, and only ma rginall y more (26
percent) s ay what they ha ve heard a bout Trumps ta x returns negatively i mpacts their likelihood to support him. Notably, a plurality of Ohio voters (45
percent) believe Trump has not released his tax returns because he knows they will cause political problems for him. Just 25 percent take him at his
word tha t he ca nnot release his returns due to a routine IRS audit. Ohio voters a re also relatively s uspect of Secretary Cl i nton when it comes to tra de,
a s just 20 percent believe s he will remain against the TPP i n the future, while 38 percent say s he will change her position o n i t and ultimately support
the deal.
###
About TargetSmart:
TargetSmart is the leading provider of political data that enables campaigns and organizations to successfully communicate wi th large audiences, and
personalize outreach. Our superior politically-focused, consultative approach combines consumer data, databases, data integration and consulting solutions for
personalized multichannel marketing strategies. TargetSmart leverages over 25 years of experience in data management to deliv er high-performance, reliable
data products and solutions.
About William & Mary:
William & Mary is a public university located in Williamsburg, Virginia. Founded by Royal Charter in 1693, it is the second o ldest institution of higher education
in the United States. U.S. News and World Report ranks William & Mary sixth among all public universities in the country.
TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll

Ohio Statewide
Table of Contents
Poll Toplines ................................................................................................................................................. 3
Poll Methodology ....................................................................................................................................... 13
Poll Crosstabs ............................................................................................................................................. 14
1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016

812 Likely Voters

Ohio Statewide
Frequencies
First of all, are you registered to vote in Ohio?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Yes
...............................................................................................................................................................
100
.No
(TERMINATE)
...............................................................................................................................................................
.
In what year were you born?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.18
- 24
...............................................................................................................................................................
4
.25
- 29
...............................................................................................................................................................
13
.30
...............................................................................................................................................................
- 34
8
.35
- 39
...............................................................................................................................................................
7
.40
- 44
...............................................................................................................................................................
8
.45
...............................................................................................................................................................
- 49
8
.50
- 54
...............................................................................................................................................................
8
.55
- 59
...............................................................................................................................................................
9
.60
...............................................................................................................................................................
- 64
10
.Over
64
...............................................................................................................................................................
23
.(No
answer)
...............................................................................................................................................................
1
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.18
...............................................................................................................................................................
- 49
49
.50
and over
...............................................................................................................................................................
50
.
Sex of respondent
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Male
...............................................................................................................................................................
48
.Female
...............................................................................................................................................................
52
.
TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll, Ohio Statewide: Frequencies, October 3-6 2016
How likely are you to vote in the general election this November? Would you say you definitely will vote, probably will vote,
the chances are 50-50 that you will vote, you probably will not vote, or you definitely will not vote?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Definitely
...............................................................................................................................................................
will vote
90
.Probably
...............................................................................................................................................................
will vote
5
.Chances
are 50-50
...............................................................................................................................................................
3
.Probably
...............................................................................................................................................................
will not vote
2
.Definitely
...............................................................................................................................................................
will not vote
0
.(Prefer
not to answer)
...............................................................................................................................................................
0
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Definitely/Probably
...............................................................................................................................................................
Will vote
95
.Probably/Definitely
...............................................................................................................................................................
Will not Vote
2
.
Now I'm going to read you the names of several political figures, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very
favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you have no opinion or have never heard of that
person, please say so.
Very
Fav
A. Hillary Clinton 26
B. Donald Trump 22
C. John Kasich
21
Smwt
Fav
16
16
30
Smwt
Unfav
9
8
17
Very
Unfav
46
51
17
(No
Opin/Ntrl)
3
3
11
(Never
heard)
0
4
(Prefer
not to
answer)
1
1
1
Total
Fav
42
38
51
Total
Unfav
54
59
33
Fav
Unfav
-12
-21
17
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Strongly
approve
...............................................................................................................................................................
31
.Somewhat
...............................................................................................................................................................
approve
20
.Somewhat
disapprove
...............................................................................................................................................................
11
.Strongly
disapprove
...............................................................................................................................................................
36
.(Don't
...............................................................................................................................................................
know/prefer not to answer)
2
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
approve
51
.Total
disapprove
...............................................................................................................................................................
47
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
approve - Total disapprove
...............................................................................................................................................................
4
.
TargetSmart Communications LLC

4
targetsmart.com
In the election for President this November, if the election were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Hillary Clinton,
Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein -- for whom would you vote?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Hillary
...............................................................................................................................................................
Clinton
42
.Lean
...............................................................................................................................................................
Hillary Clinton
1
.Donald
...............................................................................................................................................................
Trump
39
.Lean
...............................................................................................................................................................
Donald Trump
1
.Gary
...............................................................................................................................................................
Johnson
7
.Lean
...............................................................................................................................................................
Gary Johnson
1
.Jill
...............................................................................................................................................................
Stein
2
.Lean
...............................................................................................................................................................
Jill Stein
0
.(Other
...............................................................................................................................................................
candidate)
1
.Lean
...............................................................................................................................................................
(Other candidate)
0
.(Undecided)
...............................................................................................................................................................3
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
Hillary Clinton
43
.Total
Donald Trump
...............................................................................................................................................................
40
.Total
Gary Johnson
...............................................................................................................................................................
8
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
Jill Stein
2
.Total
(Other candidate)
...............................................................................................................................................................
1
.Total
(Would not vote)
...............................................................................................................................................................
2
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
Clinton - Total Trump
3
.

5
targetsmart.com
Combined Two-Way Presidential Vote

...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Hillary
Clinton
...............................................................................................................................................................
44
.Lean
...............................................................................................................................................................
Hillary Clinton
2
.Donald
...............................................................................................................................................................
Trump
42
.Lean
Donald Trump
...............................................................................................................................................................
2
.(Undecided)
...............................................................................................................................................................4
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
Hillary Clinton
46
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
Donald Trump
43
.Total
(Would not vote)
...............................................................................................................................................................
7
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
Clinton - Total Trump
...............................................................................................................................................................
2
.
(Effective Base: 370)
(ASKED OF CLINTON SUPPORTERS) And would you say your vote for president is more a vote FOR Hillary Clinton or AGAINST
Donald Trump?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.For
Clinton
...............................................................................................................................................................
56
.Against
Trump
...............................................................................................................................................................
41
.(Unsure/prefer
...............................................................................................................................................................
not to answer)
3
.
(ASKED OF TRUMP SUPPORTERS) And would you say your vote for president is more a vote FOR Donald Trump or AGAINST
Hillary Clinton?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.For
...............................................................................................................................................................
Trump
47
.Against
...............................................................................................................................................................
Clinton
49
.(Unsure/prefer
not to answer)
...............................................................................................................................................................
4
.
TargetSmart Communications

4 of 10
6
targetsmart.com
And yes or no, did you watch the first Presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on Monday,
September 26th?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Yes
...............................................................................................................................................................
80
.No
...............................................................................................................................................................
20
.(Don't
...............................................................................................................................................................
.
(ASKED OF THOSE WHO WATCHED THE FIRST DEBATE) And would you say Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump won the debate?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Hillary
...............................................................................................................................................................
Clinton
62
.Donald
Trump
...............................................................................................................................................................
17
.(Neither
candidate/tie/no clear winner)
...............................................................................................................................................................
19
.(Don't
...............................................................................................................................................................
2
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Clinton
- Trump
...............................................................................................................................................................
45
.
(ASKED OF THOSE WHO WATCHED THE FIRST DEBATE) And did Hillary Clinton's performance in the debate make you more
or less likely to support her for President, or did it make no difference?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Much
more likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
17
.Somewhat
...............................................................................................................................................................
more likely
9
.Somewhat
less likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
4
.Much
less likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
14
.Did
...............................................................................................................................................................
not make a difference/neither more nor less likely
56
.(Don't
...............................................................................................................................................................
1
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
more likely
25
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
less likely
18
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
more likely - Total less likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
8
.

7
targetsmart.com

(ASKED OF THOSE WHO WATCHED THE FIRST DEBATE) And did Donald Trump's performance in the debate make you more
or less likely to support him for President, or did it make no difference?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Much
more likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
7
.Somewhat
...............................................................................................................................................................
more likely
5
.Somewhat
...............................................................................................................................................................
less likely
8
.Much
less likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
24
.Did
...............................................................................................................................................................
not make a difference/neither more nor less likely
55
.(Don't
...............................................................................................................................................................
1
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
more likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
12
.Total
less likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
32
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
-20
.
And in the last week or so, have you seen, read, or heard anything about former Miss Universe Alicia Machado?
Has what you have seen, read, or heard about Alicia Machado made you more or less likely to support Donald Trump for
President, or has it made no difference?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.No
...............................................................................................................................................................
- Have not seen, read, or heard anything
30
.Yes
- Much more likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
3
.Yes
- Somewhat more likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
1
.Yes
...............................................................................................................................................................
- Somewhat less likely
5
.Yes
- Much less likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
17
.Yes
- Made no difference
...............................................................................................................................................................
43
.(Don't
...............................................................................................................................................................
2
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
More Likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
5
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
Less Likely
21
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
Yes
69
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
-17
.

8
targetsmart.com
And in the last week or so, have you seen, read, or heard anything about Donald Trump's tax returns?
Has what you have seen, read, or heard about Donald Trump's tax returns made you more or less likely to support Donald
Trump for President, or has it made no difference?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.No
...............................................................................................................................................................
- Have not seen, read, or heard anything
15
.Yes
...............................................................................................................................................................
- Much more likely
5
.Yes
...............................................................................................................................................................
- Somewhat more likely
3
.Yes
...............................................................................................................................................................
- Somewhat less likely
4
.Yes
...............................................................................................................................................................
- Much less likely
21
.Yes
...............................................................................................................................................................
- Made no difference
52
.(Don't
...............................................................................................................................................................
1
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
More Likely
7
.Total
Less Likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
26
.Total
Yes
...............................................................................................................................................................
85
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
-19
.
As you may know, Donald Trump has not released his federal income tax returns to the public. Do you think that is because
Trump is concerned details from the tax returns will cause political problems for him; OR because Trump is under a routine
IRS audit, and as a result his attorneys have recommended he keep his tax returns private?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Will
cause political problems
...............................................................................................................................................................
45
.Routine
...............................................................................................................................................................
IRS audit
25
.(Both)
...............................................................................................................................................................5
.(Neither)
...............................................................................................................................................................6
.(Don't
...............................................................................................................................................................
know/unsure)
18
.(Prefer
not to answer)
...............................................................................................................................................................
1
.
As you may know, Hillary Clinton once advocated for the Trans Pacific Partnership free trade deal, also known as TPP, but
has now come out against the TPP. Do you think Clinton is against the TPP now and will remain against it in the future; OR
Clinton is against the TPP for political reasons now and will change her position to support TPP in the future?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Will
...............................................................................................................................................................
remain against TPP
20
.Will
change position on TPP in future
...............................................................................................................................................................
38
.(Both)
...............................................................................................................................................................2
.(Neither)
...............................................................................................................................................................1
.(Don't
know/unsure)
...............................................................................................................................................................
37
.(Prefer
...............................................................................................................................................................
not to answer)
2
.

9
targetsmart.com
Now, I'd like to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat,
a Republican, an independent, or something else?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Strong
...............................................................................................................................................................
Democrat
24
.Weak
...............................................................................................................................................................
Democrat
8
.Independent-lean
Democrat
...............................................................................................................................................................
11
.Independent
...............................................................................................................................................................
10
.Independent-lean
...............................................................................................................................................................
Republican
15
.Weak
Republican
...............................................................................................................................................................
11
.Strong
...............................................................................................................................................................
Republican
21
.(Don't
...............................................................................................................................................................
know/Refused)
0
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Democrat
...............................................................................................................................................................
31
.Independent
...............................................................................................................................................................
with Leaners
36
.Republican
...............................................................................................................................................................
32
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Democrat
...............................................................................................................................................................
- Republican
-1
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Democrat
and Ind. Lean Dem
...............................................................................................................................................................
42
.Pure
Independent
...............................................................................................................................................................
10
.Republican
...............................................................................................................................................................
and Ind. Lean Repub
47
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Democrat
and Ind. Lean Dem - Republican and Ind. Lean Repub
...............................................................................................................................................................
-5
.
In general, would you describe your political views as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or
very conservative?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Very
...............................................................................................................................................................
liberal
10
.Somewhat
...............................................................................................................................................................
liberal
14
.Moderate
...............................................................................................................................................................
30
.Somewhat
...............................................................................................................................................................
conservative
26
.Very
...............................................................................................................................................................
conservative
16
.(Prefer
not to answer)
...............................................................................................................................................................
3
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
Liberal
24
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
Conservative
43
.

10
targetsmart.com
What is the last year of schooling that you have completed?

...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.1
- 11th grade
...............................................................................................................................................................
2
.High
...............................................................................................................................................................
school graduate
22
.Trade/technical/vocational
...............................................................................................................................................................
school
3
.Some
college/associates degree
...............................................................................................................................................................
22
.Four-year
...............................................................................................................................................................
college graduate/bachelor's degree
30
.Post-graduate
...............................................................................................................................................................
school/masters/PhD
20
.(Prefer
not to answer)
...............................................................................................................................................................
1
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.H.S.
or less
...............................................................................................................................................................
24
.Post
...............................................................................................................................................................
H.S.
25
.College
...............................................................................................................................................................
Graduate
50
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Not
...............................................................................................................................................................
College
49
.
What is your marital status -- are you married, single, separated, divorced, or widowed?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Married
...............................................................................................................................................................
62
.Single
...............................................................................................................................................................
20
.Separated/divorced
...............................................................................................................................................................9
.Widowed
...............................................................................................................................................................7
.(Don't
...............................................................................................................................................................
1
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Unmarried
...............................................................................................................................................................
36
.
What is your religion, if any? Are you Protestant, Roman Catholic, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, Atheist, Agnostic, something
else, or nothing in particular?
(IF PROTESTANT/CHRISTIAN IN RELIGION) Yes or no, would you describe yourself as a "born-again" or evangelical Christian?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Protestant
...............................................................................................................................................................
49
.Roman
Catholic
...............................................................................................................................................................
24
.Mormon
...............................................................................................................................................................0
.Jewish
...............................................................................................................................................................1
.Muslim
...............................................................................................................................................................1
.Atheist
...............................................................................................................................................................3
.Agnostic
...............................................................................................................................................................3
.Something
else
...............................................................................................................................................................
2
.Nothing
...............................................................................................................................................................
in particular
13
.(Prefer
not to answer)
...............................................................................................................................................................
3
.
Evangelical
...............................................................................................................................................................
28
.

11
targetsmart.com
What is your race?
Media Market
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.White
...............................................................................................................................................................
83
.Black
...............................................................................................................................................................
14
.Hispanic
...............................................................................................................................................................2
.Asian/Pacific
...............................................................................................................................................................
Islander
0
.Other
...............................................................................................................................................................1
.(Prefer
not to answer)
...............................................................................................................................................................
0
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.
Cincinnati
...............................................................................................................................................................
16
.Cleveland
...............................................................................................................................................................
33
.Columbus
...............................................................................................................................................................
22
.Dayton
...............................................................................................................................................................
11
.Toledo
...............................................................................................................................................................8
.Youngstown
...............................................................................................................................................................5
.Other
...............................................................................................................................................................6
.
TargetSmart Partisan Score

...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.0
9.9
...............................................................................................................................................................
25
.10
- 39.9
...............................................................................................................................................................
15
.40
...............................................................................................................................................................
- 69.9
15
.70
89.9
...............................................................................................................................................................
14
.90
- 100
...............................................................................................................................................................
31
.
TargetSmart 2016 General Turnout Score
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.0
- 49.9
...............................................................................................................................................................
6
.50
...............................................................................................................................................................
- 69.9
11
.70
...............................................................................................................................................................
- 94.9
35
.95
- 100
...............................................................................................................................................................
48
.

12
targetsmart.com

Ohio Statewide
Survey Methodology
The TargetSmart William & Mary Poll was conducted using a blended web/phone data collection
approach. In total, the poll reached 812 registered Ohio voters. 617 telephone interviews were
conducted from October 3-6, 2016, with telephone numbers being selected at random from the
TargetSmart voter file. 195 online interviews were conducted from October 4-5, 2016 among panelists
from six leading online opt-in panel providers who were matched to the TargetSmart voter file. Results
were weighted by TargetSmart Partisanship Score, TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score,
age, gender, race, education level, and media market to match the demographic characteristics of
registered voters in the state.
A second round of weighting was applied to the data to reflect likely 2016 voters in the state,
using deviation from the average TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout score in the survey dataset
to proportionally up-weight respondents with higher than average turnout scores, and down-weight
respondents with lower than average turnout scores. The TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout
model is an ensemble method classifier model that was created to predict the likelihood that an
individual will vote in the 2016 general election. No margins or sampling error are calculated for this
survey, as this statistic is only applicable to fully randomly sampled surveys, which this survey is not due
to its partial reliance on online interviews.
13
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016

Party
Total
Dem
2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep
-1
-5
Ohio Statewide
TargetSmart Partisanship Score
Ind
Rep
90+
70 - 89.99
30 - 69.99
10 - 29.99
0 - 9.99
100
-100
59
10
-15
-19
-62
100
-10
-100
71
10
-21
-34
-80
Party ID Difference...
Four-Way Presidential Vote...

Total Answering
(812)
(254)
(293)
(262)
(252)
(110)
(165)
(82)
(204)
Total Hillary Clinton

Total Donald Trump
Total Gary Johnson
Total Jill Stein
Total (Other candidate)
43
40
8
2
1
88
5
2
2
-
35
40
14
3
1
9
74
8
1
3
76
12
4
3
0
49
36
10
1
-
37
47
7
3
-
32
45
13
3
9
70
12
2
4
(Undecided)
Total (Would not vote)
Total Clinton - Total Trump
83
-5
-65
63
13
-10
-12
-61
Two-Way Presidential Vote...

Total Answering
(812)
(254)
(293)
(262)
(252)
(110)
(165)
(82)
(204)

Total Donald Trump
46
43
90
5
39
46
10
77
78
13
51
37
41
49
35
49
11
77
(Undecided)
10
12
85
-7
-68
65
13
-9
-14
-67
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016

Gender
Total
Men
Race
Women White
Black
Non White
Ohio Statewide
White/Gender
Marital Status
Gender/Marital
White White
Men Women
Marr
ied
Unmarr
ied
Marr
ied
Men
Marr Unmarr
Unmarr
ied
ied
ied Men Women Women
-1
-9
-10
58
42
-17
-3
-11
14
-19
-2
18
-5
-16
-17
73
56
-28
-7
-16
13
-28
-4
19

Total Answering
(812)
(387)
(424)
(671)
(110)
(137)
(320)
(351)
(506)
(294)
(254)
(130)
(252)
(163)

Total Donald Trump
Total Gary Johnson
Total Jill Stein
43
40
8
2
1
38
46
10
2
1
48
35
7
2
1
37
46
9
2
2
83
9
1
2
-
76
13
3
2
-
31
52
11
2
1
42
41
8
2
2
38
46
8
2
2
51
32
9
2
1
30
53
10
1
2
52
32
9
3
-
46
39
6
2
1
50
31
8
2
2
(Undecided)
-8
13
-9
75
62
-21
-8
19
-23
20
19

Total Answering
(812)
(387)
(424)
(671)
(110)
(137)
(320)
(351)
(506)
(294)
(254)
(130)
(252)
(163)

Total Donald Trump
46
43
41
49
50
38
39
49
85
9
77
15
34
55
44
44
40
50
54
34
32
57
56
34
48
42
53
34
(Undecided)
-9
12
-10
77
62
-22
-10
20
-25
22
19
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016

Age
Education
Total
Coll
Grad
Total
Non Coll
Ohio Statewide
Gender/Education
Men
Non Coll
Men
Coll
White/Education
Women
Non - Women
Coll
Coll
White
Non Coll
Evangelical
White
Coll
Total
Evange
lical
White
Evange
lical
Total
18 - 49
50 and
over
-1
-1
-2
-4
-3
-16
-10
-9
-22
-39
-5
-3
-8
-6
-4
-10
-23
10
-19
-15
-30
-50

Total Answering
(812)
(394)
(409)
(406)
(397)
(192)
(194)
(205)
(212)
(322)
(347)
(229)
(180)

Total Donald Trump
Total Gary Johnson
Total Jill Stein
43
40
8
2
1
42
35
13
3
2
44
46
3
1
1
46
34
11
2
2
40
47
6
2
1
36
53
5
2
1
40
39
14
2
1
44
41
6
2
1
52
30
8
3
2
31
54
7
2
1
42
38
11
2
2
31
52
8
3
3
19
62
9
2
4
(Undecided)
-3
12
-7
-17
22
-23
-21
-43

Total Answering
(812)
(394)
(409)
(406)
(397)
(192)
(194)
(205)
(212)
(322)
(347)
(229)
(180)

Total Donald Trump
46
43
45
40
45
48
49
38
42
49
37
56
44
42
47
43
54
33
33
58
45
41
34
57
23
68
(Undecided)
10
10
11
10
-3
12
-7
-19
21
-24
-23
-45
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016
Ohio Statewide
Media Market
Total
Clevel and
- Akron Colu mbus Cincin nati
Canton OH
OH
OH
Other
-1
11
-12
-7
-3
-5
-10
-10
-11

Total Answering
(812)
(272)
(175)
(131)
(235)

Total Donald Trump
Total Gary Johnson
Total Jill Stein
43
40
8
2
1
51
32
9
2
1
41
40
9
5
2
42
44
7
2
1
37
48
7
1
1
(Undecided)
19
-2
-11

Total Answering
(812)
(272)
(175)
(131)
(235)

Total Donald Trump
46
43
54
37
44
43
43
45
38
50
(Undecided)
17
-2
-12
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016
Ohio Statewide
TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score
Total
95+
90+
85+
80+
0 - 79.99
-1
-11
-5
-2
-1
-1
-5
-16
-8
-5
-3
-10

Total Answering
(812)
(388)
(500)
(566)
(608)
(204)

Total Donald Trump
Total Gary Johnson
Total Jill Stein
43
40
8
2
1
42
44
7
1
2
45
40
8
2
2
46
39
7
2
2
46
39
7
2
2
35
43
12
2
-
(Undecided)
-2
-8

Total Answering
(812)
(388)
(500)
(566)
(608)
(204)

Total Donald Trump
46
43
43
48
47
43
48
42
48
42
38
47
(Undecided)
11
-4
-9
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016

Party
Total
Dem
-1
-5
Ohio Statewide
Ind
Rep
90+
70 - 89.99
30 - 69.99
10 - 29.99
0 - 9.99
100
-100
59
10
-15
-19
-62
100
-10
-100
71
10
-21
-34
-80
(370)
(229)
(114)
(25)
(198)
(56)
(67)
(29)
(22)
56
41
3
65
34
1
45
50
6
30
67
4
64
33
3
46
49
5
49
51
-
46
51
3
44
56
-
(353)
(14)
(135)
(203)
(33)
(41)
(81)
(40)
(158)
47
49
4
55
45
-
42
54
5
49
47
4
58
39
3
45
54
1
52
44
4
59
33
8
39
57
4
(812)
(254)
(293)
(262)
(252)
(110)
(165)
(82)
(204)
80
20
-
81
19
-
77
23
-
81
19
-
82
18
-
72
28
-
78
22
-
81
19
-
82
18
-
For Clinton/Against Trump...

Total Answering
For Clinton
Against Trump
(Unsure/prefer not to answer)
For Trump/Against Clinton...

Total Answering
For Trump
Against Clinton
Debate watch...
Total Answering
Yes
No
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)
Debate winner...
Total Answering
(646)
(205)
(226)
(212)
(206)
(79)
(128)
(66)
(167)
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
(Neither candidate/tie/no clear winner)
62
17
19
2
92
1
6
2
62
17
19
2
34
32
32
2
83
7
9
1
66
13
19
2
55
21
22
2
63
18
13
6
40
28
31
1
Clinton - Trump
45
91
45
76
52
34
45
12
Clinton's Debate Performance Influence on Her Support...

Total Answering
(646)
(205)
(226)
(212)
(206)
(79)
(128)
(66)
(167)
Much more likely

Somewhat more likely
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
No difference
17
9
4
14
56
1
36
10
1
1
52
1
13
11
5
16
56
-
2
6
5
25
60
1
30
11
3
6
49
1
20
13
6
11
48
1
16
8
3
13
59
1
9
5
1
11
74
-
1
6
5
28
59
1
Total more likely

Total less likely
25
18
45
2
24
21
8
30
41
9
33
17
24
15
14
12
8
33
Total more likely - Total less likely
44
-22
32
16
-25
Trump's Debate Performance Influence on His Support...

Total Answering
(646)
(205)
(226)
(212)
(206)
(79)
(128)
(66)
(167)
Much more likely

Much less likely
No difference
7
5
8
24
55
1
0
1
4
46
48
1
6
4
10
23
56
2
14
9
10
5
61
1
2
3
5
41
47
1
8
7
8
24
51
3
6
2
7
20
63
2
7
0
11
27
55
-
11
10
11
5
62
1
Total more likely

Total less likely
12
32
1
50
10
32
23
14
6
46
15
32
8
27
7
37
21
16
-20
-48
-23
-41
-17
-19
-30
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016

Gender
Total
Men
Race
Women White
Black
Non White
Ohio Statewide
White/Gender
Marital Status
Gender/Marital
White White
Men Women
Marr
ied
Unmarr
ied
Marr
ied
Men
Marr Unmarr
Unmarr
ied
ied
ied Men Women Women
-1
-9
-10
58
42
-17
-3
-11
14
-19
-2
18
-5
-16
-17
73
56
-28
-7
-16
13
-28
-4
19
(370)
(157)
(213)
(262)
(94)
(106)
(108)
(154)
(202)
(160)
(82)
(73)
(120)
(86)
56
41
3
52
45
3
60
38
2
56
42
2
61
36
3
57
40
4
53
44
3
59
40
1
53
43
4
60
39
1
52
44
4
51
47
2
53
43
4
67
33
-
(353)
(190)
(162)
(331)
(9)
(21)
(177)
(154)
(252)
(99)
(145)
(45)
(107)
(55)
47
49
4
48
48
3
45
51
5
47
49
4
59
28
13
46
48
6
47
49
4
46
50
4
46
50
4
47
48
5
47
48
5
52
48
-
45
52
3
43
48
9
(812)
(387)
(424)
(671)
(110)
(137)
(320)
(351)
(506)
(294)
(254)
(130)
(252)
(163)
80
20
78
22
81
19
81
19
75
25
75
25
78
22
83
17
80
20
79
21
78
22
78
22
82
18
80
20

Total Answering
For Clinton
Against Trump

Total Answering
For Trump
Against Clinton
Debate watch...
Total Answering
Yes
No
(Don't know/prefer not to
answer)
Debate winner...
Total Answering
(646)
(302)
(345)
(540)
(82)
(103)
(249)
(291)
(405)
(231)
(198)
(101)
(208)
(130)
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
(Neither candidate/tie/no clear
winner)
answer)
62
17
59
16
64
17
58
19
86
5
82
7
54
19
62
18
59
19
68
14
54
18
70
12
63
19
66
16
19
23
16
21
11
25
17
20
17
25
17
16
16
Clinton - Trump
45
43
47
40
82
74
35
44
40
53
36
58
44
50

Total Answering
(646)
(302)
(345)
(540)
(82)
(103)
(249)
(291)
(405)
(231)
(198)
(101)
(208)
(130)
Much more likely

Much less likely
No difference
answer)
17
9
4
14
56
14
9
4
15
58
19
9
3
14
54
13
9
4
16
57
40
11
1
2
46
34
9
2
2
52
11
8
4
17
60
15
9
4
16
54
15
9
4
16
56
20
8
4
11
56
12
8
3
17
60
18
11
5
9
56
17
10
4
15
53
21
6
2
12
56
Total more likely

Total less likely
25
18
23
18
28
17
22
20
51
3
44
5
19
21
25
20
24
20
28
14
20
20
29
14
28
19
27
15
11
47
39
-2
13
15
12

Total Answering
(646)
(302)
(345)
(540)
(82)
(103)
(249)
(291)
(405)
(231)
(198)
(101)
(208)
(130)
Much more likely

Much less likely
No difference
answer)
7
5
8
24
55
7
4
7
22
59
6
5
8
26
52
8
6
8
21
56
2
42
56
1
6
39
54
8
5
7
18
60
8
6
9
24
51
7
5
9
21
56
5
4
5
28
55
8
5
8
19
59
5
3
6
27
58
7
5
11
24
53
5
6
5
29
53
Total more likely

Total less likely
12
32
11
29
12
35
13
29
44
1
45
13
25
14
33
13
31
10
33
13
27
8
33
12
34
11
34
-20
-18
-23
-16
44
-43
-12
-19
-18
-24
-14
-25
-22
-23
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016

Age
Education
Total
Coll
Grad
Total
Non Coll
Ohio Statewide
Gender/Education
Men
Non Coll
Men
Coll
White/Education
Women
Non - Women
Coll
Coll
White
Non Coll
Evangelical
White
Coll
Total
Evange
lical
White
Evange
lical
Total
18 - 49
50 and
over
-1
-1
-2
-4
-3
-16
-10
-9
-22
-39
-5
-3
-8
-6
-4
-10
-23
10
-19
-15
-30
-50
(370)
(179)
(184)
(200)
(167)
(71)
(85)
(96)
(114)
(107)
(156)
(78)
(41)
56
41
3
49
46
4
63
36
1
54
44
2
59
38
3
55
42
3
49
48
3
62
35
3
57
42
2
58
38
4
55
44
1
58
42
-
61
39
-
(353)
(157)
(196)
(153)
(196)
(107)
(83)
(89)
(70)
(185)
(144)
(131)
(122)
47
49
4
45
53
3
48
47
5
36
59
5
55
41
3
56
41
3
38
58
4
54
42
4
33
61
6
55
42
3
36
59
6
47
48
5
47
49
4
(812)
(394)
(409)
(406)
(397)
(192)
(194)
(205)
(212)
(322)
(347)
(229)
(180)
80
20
-
78
22
-
81
19
-
82
18
-
78
22
-
74
26
-
82
18
-
81
19
-
82
18
-
79
21
-
83
17
-
78
22
-
78
22
-

Total Answering
For Clinton
Against Trump

Total Answering
For Trump
Against Clinton
Debate watch...
Total Answering
Yes
No
Debate winner...
Total Answering
(646)
(307)
(333)
(333)
(308)
(142)
(159)
(167)
(174)
(253)
(286)
(179)
(141)
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
(Neither candidate/tie/no clear
winner)
62
17
65
18
59
16
66
14
58
20
58
19
61
14
59
22
71
13
53
23
63
15
49
23
43
26
19
16
22
20
19
21
24
16
15
21
20
26
29
Clinton - Trump
45
47
43
52
38
39
47
37
57
30
48
25
17

Total Answering
(646)
(307)
(333)
(333)
(308)
(142)
(159)
(167)
(174)
(253)
(286)
(179)
(141)
Much more likely

Much less likely
No difference
17
9
4
14
56
1
13
11
5
11
59
0
19
7
2
17
53
1
15
11
4
12
57
-
18
7
3
16
55
2
18
6
4
16
56
1
10
12
4
13
61
-
18
7
3
16
54
3
20
10
4
12
54
-
12
6
3
20
57
2
14
12
4
14
56
-
11
9
3
20
55
2
7
7
4
23
57
2
Total more likely

Total less likely
25
18
24
16
26
19
26
16
24
19
24
19
22
17
25
19
30
16
18
23
26
18
20
23
14
27
10
15
-5
-3
-13

Total Answering
(646)
(307)
(333)
(333)
(308)
(142)
(159)
(167)
(174)
(253)
(286)
(179)
(141)
Much more likely

Much less likely
No difference
7
5
8
24
55
1
5
4
12
20
58
1
8
6
4
27
53
2
4
4
9
23
59
1
9
6
6
25
52
2
8
4
6
24
57
2
6
4
9
19
61
1
10
7
7
27
47
2
3
4
10
26
57
1
11
7
6
20
54
2
5
5
10
23
57
1
6
8
8
18
59
2
7
10
8
12
61
2
Total more likely

Total less likely
12
32
9
33
14
31
8
32
15
32
12
29
10
29
17
33
7
36
18
26
9
33
14
26
17
20
-20
-24
-17
-24
-17
-17
-19
-16
-29
-8
-23
-11
-3
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016
Ohio Statewide
Media Market
Total
Clevel and
Canton OH
OH
OH
Other
-1
11
-12
-7
-3
-5
-10
-10
-11
(370)
(147)
(77)
(57)
(89)
56
41
3
54
43
3
51
45
4
58
41
1
63
35
2
(353)
(100)
(75)
(59)
(118)
47
49
4
40
54
6
50
47
2
40
51
9
53
46
1
(812)
(272)
(175)
(131)
(235)
80
20
-
78
22
-
79
21
-
78
22
-
83
17
-

Total Answering
For Clinton
Against Trump

Total Answering
For Trump
Against Clinton
Debate watch...
Total Answering
Yes
No
Debate winner...
Total Answering
(646)
(211)
(138)
(101)
(196)
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
62
17
19
2
68
14
17
1
58
17
23
2
66
11
22
1
56
23
17
3
Clinton - Trump
45
54
41
56
33

Total Answering
(646)
(211)
(138)
(101)
(196)
Much more likely

Much less likely
No difference
17
9
4
14
56
1
21
12
1
12
53
1
15
10
6
14
54
1
11
7
2
12
69
-
16
6
5
18
54
2
Total more likely

Total less likely
25
18
33
13
25
20
18
13
21
23
20
-2

Total Answering
(646)
(211)
(138)
(101)
(196)
Much more likely

Much less likely
No difference
7
5
8
24
55
1
5
5
9
33
47
1
7
4
11
22
56
1
6
5
7
18
65
-
9
5
5
19
58
3
Total more likely

Total less likely
12
32
10
42
11
33
11
24
15
24
-20
-33
-22
-13
-10
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016
Ohio Statewide
Total
95+
90+
85+
80+
0 - 79.99
-1
-11
-5
-2
-1
-1
-5
-16
-8
-5
-3
-10
(370)
(169)
(235)
(270)
(293)
(77)
56
41
3
64
35
1
57
40
3
57
40
3
58
39
3
49
48
3
(353)
(185)
(217)
(240)
(256)
(96)
47
49
4
44
53
4
42
55
3
43
53
4
43
53
4
56
40
4
(812)
(388)
(500)
(566)
(608)
(204)
80
20
-
82
18
-
81
19
-
80
20
-
79
21
-
81
19
-

Total Answering
For Clinton
Against Trump

Total Answering
For Trump
Against Clinton
Debate watch...
Total Answering
Yes
No
Debate winner...
Total Answering
(646)
(319)
(404)
(451)
(482)
(164)
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
62
17
19
2
62
17
19
2
64
15
19
2
64
16
18
2
64
16
18
2
56
21
22
2
Clinton - Trump
45
46
48
48
49
35

Total Answering
(646)
(319)
(404)
(451)
(482)
(164)
Much more likely

Much less likely
No difference
17
9
4
14
56
1
15
12
3
17
53
0
16
11
3
15
55
0
17
10
2
15
54
1
17
10
3
15
54
1
15
6
6
11
61
1
Total more likely

Total less likely
25
18
27
20
27
18
27
18
27
18
21
17
10

Total Answering
(646)
(319)
(404)
(451)
(482)
(164)
Much more likely

Much less likely
No difference
7
5
8
24
55
1
6
6
8
24
56
0
5
5
8
26
55
1
6
5
8
25
55
1
6
5
8
25
55
1
9
4
7
22
55
2
Total more likely

Total less likely
12
32
12
32
10
34
11
33
11
33
13
30
-20
-20
-23
-22
-22
-16
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016

Party
Total
Dem
-1
-5
Ohio Statewide
Ind
Rep
90+
70 - 89.99
30 - 69.99
10 - 29.99
0 - 9.99
100
-100
59
10
-15
-19
-62
100
-10
-100
71
10
-21
-34
-80
Alicia Machado Influence on Support for Trump...

Total Answering
(812)
(254)
(293)
(262)
(252)
(110)
(165)
(82)
(204)
Have not seen/heard

Yes - Much more likely
Yes - Somewhat more likely
Yes - Somewhat less likely
Yes - Much less likely
Yes - Made no difference
(Don't know)
30
3
1
5
17
43
2
28
2
1
4
32
31
2
30
3
1
5
15
45
1
31
5
2
5
4
52
2
29
3
1
3
27
38
1
28
2
6
23
39
2
36
4
1
4
13
40
3
27
3
3
17
49
1
29
5
2
7
3
52
2
Total More Likely

Total Less Likely
5
21
3
36
4
20
7
8
3
29
2
29
5
18
3
20
7
10
-17
-33
-15
-2
-26
-26
-13
-17
-3
Total Yes Have Seen/Heard
69
71
69
67
70
70
62
72
70
Failure to Release Tax Returns Influence on Support for Trump...

Total Answering
(812)
(254)
(293)
(262)
(252)
(110)
(165)
(82)
(204)
Have not seen/heard

(Don't know)
15
5
3
4
21
52
1
18
2
1
4
40
32
1
13
5
2
5
20
56
-
14
6
5
4
5
66
1
17
4
2
3
37
36
1
17
4
2
5
26
46
1
18
4
1
7
17
54
-
13
4
1
3
22
55
2
10
7
6
5
3
70
0
Total More Likely

Total Less Likely
7
26
4
45
7
25
10
9
5
40
6
30
5
24
5
25
12
7
-19
-41
-17
-35
-24
-19
-20
85
81
87
86
82
82
82
85
90
(812)
(254)
(293)
(262)
(252)
(110)
(165)
(82)
(204)
45
25
5
6
18
1
70
9
5
2
14
0
43
28
3
6
19
2
25
37
7
11
19
1
60
15
4
4
17
1
46
27
4
5
18
1
44
25
4
6
18
3
34
26
6
8
25
1
32
35
6
10
15
2
(812)
(254)
(293)
(262)
(252)
(110)
(165)
(82)
(204)
20
38
2
1
37
2
28
16
2
1
50
3
21
45
2
1
30
2
12
53
3
2
31
-
27
23
3
1
44
2
26
35
1
0
37
2
18
39
1
1
41
1
14
40
1
3
39
3
13
58
3
2
24
0
Reason Trump Has Not Released Tax Returns...

Total Answering
Will cause political problems
Routine IRS audit
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)
(Prefer not to answer)
Clinton's Future Stance on TPP...

Total Answering
Will remain against TPP
Will change position
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016

Gender
Total
Men
Race
Women White
Black
Non White
Ohio Statewide
White/Gender
Marital Status
Gender/Marital
White White
Men Women
Marr
ied
Unmarr
ied
Marr
ied
Men
Marr Unmarr
Unmarr
ied
ied
ied Men Women Women
-1
-9
-10
58
42
-17
-3
-11
14
-19
-2
18
-5
-16
-17
73
56
-28
-7
-16
13
-28
-4
19

Total Answering
(812)
(387)
(424)
(671)
(110)
(137)
(320)
(351)
(506)
(294)
(254)
(130)
(252)
(163)
Have not seen/heard

(Don't know)
30
3
1
5
17
43
2
30
3
1
5
14
44
2
30
3
1
4
19
42
1
27
3
1
5
16
46
2
47
2
1
1
19
30
-
44
3
1
1
20
31
-
27
4
2
6
12
48
2
27
3
1
5
19
43
2
26
4
2
6
17
46
1
37
3
1
3
15
38
3
25
4
1
6
14
49
1
39
3
1
4
16
36
2
26
4
2
6
20
42
0
36
3
1
2
15
41
3
Total More Likely

Total Less Likely
5
21
5
20
5
22
5
21
3
20
4
21
5
18
4
24
5
23
4
18
5
19
4
20
5
26
4
16
-17
-15
-18
-16
-17
-18
-13
-20
-18
-14
-14
-16
-21
-13
69
68
69
71
53
56
71
72
74
60
73
59
74
61

Total Answering
(812)
(387)
(424)
(671)
(110)
(137)
(320)
(351)
(506)
(294)
(254)
(130)
(252)
(163)
Have not seen/heard

(Don't know)
15
5
3
4
21
52
1
15
6
3
4
21
51
0
15
3
2
5
22
52
1
13
5
3
5
20
55
1
27
2
2
1
32
35
1
25
2
2
1
30
39
1
12
7
3
5
19
54
0
13
3
2
5
20
55
1
11
5
2
5
20
56
0
20
4
3
3
23
46
1
10
7
3
5
19
55
-
22
3
3
3
25
43
1
12
3
1
6
22
56
0
18
4
4
3
21
48
2
Total More Likely

Total Less Likely
7
26
9
25
6
26
8
25
4
33
4
31
10
24
6
26
7
26
7
26
10
24
6
28
4
27
8
24
-19
-16
-21
-17
-29
-27
-14
-20
-18
-19
-13
-22
-23
-16
85
85
84
87
72
74
88
86
88
79
90
77
87
80

Total Answering
(812)
(387)
(424)
(671)
(110)
(137)
(320)
(351)
(506)
(294)
(254)
(130)
(252)
(163)
45
25
5
6
18
1
44
26
5
8
15
1
46
24
4
5
20
1
44
26
5
7
17
1
55
17
2
4
23
-
52
22
2
3
20
0
42
26
6
9
15
2
46
25
4
5
19
1
45
26
5
7
15
1
45
23
4
6
21
2
43
26
6
9
15
1
47
26
3
7
15
2
48
26
4
5
16
0
43
21
5
4
25
2
(812)
(387)
(424)
(671)
(110)
(137)
(320)
(351)
(506)
(294)
(254)
(130)
(252)
(163)
20
38
2
1
37
2
22
47
2
1
28
1
19
31
2
1
45
2
20
40
2
2
36
1
25
23
4
46
2
22
30
3
0
41
3
21
48
2
2
28
0
19
33
2
2
43
2
20
42
3
2
32
1
21
33
1
0
43
2
21
52
2
2
22
1
23
36
1
0
39
-
19
32
3
2
43
1
19
31
1
45
3

Routine IRS audit
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)

Total Answering
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016

Age
Education
Total
Coll
Grad
Total
Non Coll
Ohio Statewide
Gender/Education
Men
Non Coll
Men
Coll
White/Education
Women
Non - Women
Coll
Coll
White
Non Coll
Evangelical
White
Coll
Total
Evange
lical
White
Evange
lical
Total
18 - 49
50 and
over
-1
-1
-2
-4
-3
-16
-10
-9
-22
-39
-5
-3
-8
-6
-4
-10
-23
10
-19
-15
-30
-50

Total Answering
(812)
(394)
(409)
(406)
(397)
(192)
(194)
(205)
(212)
(322)
(347)
(229)
(180)
Have not seen/heard

(Don't know)
30
3
1
5
17
43
2
32
2
2
5
16
42
1
28
5
1
4
18
44
2
24
4
2
7
17
46
1
35
3
1
2
16
40
2
39
3
1
2
13
40
2
21
4
2
8
15
49
1
32
3
1
2
19
40
2
27
4
2
6
18
44
0
32
3
1
3
14
45
3
22
4
2
7
17
47
1
34
3
3
2
13
42
2
30
4
4
2
11
46
2
Total More Likely

Total Less Likely
5
21
4
21
5
22
6
24
4
19
3
16
6
23
4
22
5
24
4
17
5
25
6
16
8
13
-17
-17
-16
-18
-15
-12
-18
-18
-18
-13
-19
-9
-6
69
67
70
75
62
59
78
66
73
65
77
64
67

Total Answering
(812)
(394)
(409)
(406)
(397)
(192)
(194)
(205)
(212)
(322)
(347)
(229)
(180)
Have not seen/heard

(Don't know)
15
5
3
4
21
52
1
16
3
2
6
19
53
0
13
6
3
3
24
50
1
11
5
2
6
24
53
0
19
4
3
3
19
51
1
21
4
4
2
19
51
-
9
8
2
7
23
51
0
16
4
2
5
19
51
2
13
3
2
4
24
54
-
16
5
3
4
16
56
1
10
5
3
6
23
53
0
17
6
4
5
16
52
0
15
7
4
5
12
57
1
Total More Likely

Total Less Likely
7
26
5
25
9
27
7
29
7
23
8
21
10
30
6
24
5
29
7
20
8
29
10
21
11
17
-19
-20
-17
-22
-16
-13
-20
-18
-24
-13
-21
-10
-6
85
83
87
89
81
79
91
82
87
84
90
83
85

Total Answering
Routine IRS audit
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)
(812)
(394)
(409)
(406)
(397)
(192)
(194)
(205)
(212)
(322)
(347)
(229)
(180)
45
25
5
6
18
1
48
25
4
6
16
1
42
25
5
7
19
1
51
22
6
7
13
0
40
28
3
6
22
2
38
30
4
8
17
2
50
23
6
8
13
0
41
26
3
3
26
2
52
22
6
6
13
1
38
28
4
6
21
2
50
23
6
8
13
1
37
34
2
4
22
1
35
37
3
5
19
1
(812)
(394)
(409)
(406)
(397)
(192)
(194)
(205)
(212)
(322)
(347)
(229)
(180)
20
38
2
1
37
2
18
40
2
2
37
1
22
37
2
1
36
2
23
40
2
2
32
2
18
37
2
1
41
1
18
44
2
1
35
0
25
49
2
2
20
2
18
31
2
1
46
3
20
31
3
2
42
1
18
40
2
1
38
1
22
40
2
2
33
1
15
43
1
2
38
1
14
48
1
3
34
1

Total Answering
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016
Ohio Statewide
Media Market
Clevel and
Canton OH
OH
OH
Total
Other
-1
11
-12
-7
-3
-5
-10
-10
-11

Total Answering
(812)
(272)
(175)
(131)
(235)
Have not seen/heard

(Don't know)
30
3
1
5
17
43
2
30
4
1
3
21
40
1
25
2
1
7
16
48
2
29
2
7
10
49
3
33
5
3
3
16
39
1
Total More Likely

Total Less Likely
5
21
5
24
3
22
2
16
7
19
-17
-20
-20
-15
-12
69
69
73
68
65

Total Answering
(812)
(272)
(175)
(131)
(235)
Have not seen/heard

(Don't know)
15
5
3
4
21
52
1
16
4
4
5
24
47
0
11
4
1
4
22
56
1
17
3
1
6
17
54
1
14
6
3
3
20
53
1
Total More Likely

Total Less Likely
7
26
8
28
5
27
5
23
9
24
-19
-21
-22
-18
-15
85
83
88
82
85
(812)
(272)
(175)
(131)
(235)
45
25
5
6
18
1
46
22
6
6
19
1
48
24
7
5
15
1
46
22
3
9
20
1
42
31
2
7
16
2
(812)
(272)
(175)
(131)
(235)
20
38
2
1
37
2
23
35
2
1
39
2
15
42
4
2
36
1
23
35
3
2
36
1
19
42
1
1
35
2

Total Answering
Routine IRS audit
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)

Total Answering
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016
Ohio Statewide
Total
95+
90+
85+
80+
0 - 79.99
-1
-11
-5
-2
-1
-1
-5
-16
-8
-5
-3
-10

Total Answering
(812)
(388)
(500)
(566)
(608)
(204)
Have not seen/heard

(Don't know)
30
3
1
5
17
43
2
24
4
2
4
16
48
1
27
4
2
5
17
45
1
27
4
1
5
18
44
2
28
3
1
5
18
43
1
35
3
1
4
14
42
2
Total More Likely

Total Less Likely
5
21
6
21
5
22
5
23
5
22
5
17
-17
-14
-17
-18
-18
-13
69
75
72
71
70
64

Total Answering
(812)
(388)
(500)
(566)
(608)
(204)
Have not seen/heard

(Don't know)
15
5
3
4
21
52
1
11
6
2
4
20
57
0
12
5
2
4
22
54
0
13
5
2
4
23
52
0
14
5
2
4
23
52
0
17
4
3
5
18
51
1
Total More Likely

Total Less Likely
7
26
8
24
6
27
7
27
7
27
7
23
-19
-16
-20
-20
-20
-15
85
89
87
86
86
81
(812)
(388)
(500)
(566)
(608)
(204)
45
25
5
6
18
1
45
25
5
8
17
1
47
23
5
7
17
1
47
23
5
6
17
1
46
24
5
7
17
1
42
28
4
6
19
1
(812)
(388)
(500)
(566)
(608)
(204)
20
38
2
1
37
2
22
42
3
2
31
1
20
40
3
2
35
1
20
38
2
1
36
2
20
38
2
2
36
2
20
39
1
1
37
1

Total Answering
Routine IRS audit
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)

Total Answering
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016

Party
Total
Dem
-1
-5
Ohio Statewide
Ind
Rep
90+
70 - 89.99
30 - 69.99
10 - 29.99
0 - 9.99
100
-100
59
10
-15
-19
-62
100
-10
-100
71
10
-21
-34
-80
Respondent age...
Total Answering
(812)
(254)
(293)
(262)
(252)
(110)
(165)
(82)
(204)
18 - 34
35 - 49
50 - 64
Over 64
(No answer)
25
24
27
23
1
23
20
30
25
2
29
29
24
18
0
23
21
28
28
0
20
21
31
25
3
38
25
17
20
1
33
26
26
16
-
33
20
28
19
-
15
25
29
30
0
18 - 49
50 and over
49
50
43
55
58
42
44
56
41
56
63
37
59
41
53
47
40
59
(812)
(254)
(293)
(262)
(252)
(110)
(165)
(82)
(204)
48
52
38
62
54
46
50
50
43
57
49
51
51
49
47
53
51
49
(812)
(254)
(293)
(262)
(252)
(110)
(165)
(82)
(204)
Strong Dem
Weak Dem
Ind-lean Dem
Ind
Ind-lean Rep
Weak Rep
Strong Rep
(DK/Ref)
24
8
11
10
15
11
21
0
76
24
-
30
29
41
-
36
64
-
53
11
16
9
4
3
2
0
20
11
17
13
17
11
11
1
13
7
14
11
21
12
22
0
14
7
6
12
22
14
25
-
2
2
2
9
20
20
46
-
2-3-2 Dem
Ind
Rep
31
36
32
100
-
100
-
100
65
29
6
31
46
22
20
46
34
21
40
39
4
30
66
Dem-Rep
-1
100
-100
59
10
-15
-19
-62
3-1-3 Dem
Ind
Rep
42
10
47
100
-
30
29
41
100
80
9
10
48
13
38
34
11
55
27
12
61
5
9
86
Dem-Rep
-5
100
-10
-100
71
10
-21
-34
-80
(812)
(254)
(293)
(262)
(252)
(110)
(165)
(82)
(204)
Very liberal
Somewhat liberal
Moderate
Somewhat conservative
Very conservative
10
14
30
26
16
3
23
28
26
10
7
5
7
10
43
29
8
2
1
4
19
39
34
2
21
22
30
14
8
5
10
17
39
22
7
5
5
15
33
31
14
3
10
5
33
29
21
3
2
4
22
39
32
1
Total Liberal
Total Conservative
24
43
51
17
17
37
5
73
43
22
27
30
20
45
14
50
6
71
Respondent gender...
Total Answering
Male
Female
Party ID...
Total Answering
Ideology...
Total Answering
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016

Gender
Total
Men
Race
Women White
Black
Non White
Ohio Statewide
White/Gender
Marital Status
Gender/Marital
White White
Men Women
Marr
ied
Unmarr
ied
Marr
ied
Men
Marr Unmarr
Unmarr
ied
ied
ied Men Women Women
-1
-9
-10
58
42
-17
-3
-11
14
-19
-2
18
-5
-16
-17
73
56
-28
-7
-16
13
-28
-4
19
Respondent age...
Total Answering
(812)
(387)
(424)
(671)
(110)
(137)
(320)
(351)
(506)
(294)
(254)
(130)
(252)
(163)
18 - 34
35 - 49
50 - 64
Over 64
(No answer)
25
24
27
23
1
21
29
27
22
1
28
19
28
24
1
24
25
27
24
0
27
16
32
22
3
31
18
28
19
3
19
31
26
23
1
28
19
28
25
-
21
28
30
21
0
33
16
23
27
1
15
32
27
26
0
33
21
27
15
3
26
24
33
16
1
32
12
19
36
-
18 - 49
50 and over
49
50
50
49
47
52
48
51
43
53
50
47
50
49
47
53
49
51
49
49
48
52
55
42
50
50
45
55
(812)
(387)
(424)
(671)
(110)
(137)
(320)
(351)
(506)
(294)
(254)
(130)
(252)
(163)
48
52
100
-
100
48
52
44
56
48
52
100
-
100
50
50
44
56
100
-
100
-
100
100
(812)
(387)
(424)
(671)
(110)
(137)
(320)
(351)
(506)
(294)
(254)
(130)
(252)
(163)
Strong Dem
Weak Dem
Ind-lean Dem
Ind
Ind-lean Rep
Weak Rep
Strong Rep
(DK/Ref)
24
8
11
10
15
11
21
0
18
7
11
13
18
13
21
-
29
8
11
8
12
10
21
1
19
7
10
10
17
13
23
0
55
9
18
10
2
1
5
-
45
9
18
11
4
3
9
-
14
7
9
12
20
15
23
-
25
7
10
8
14
11
24
0
19
9
10
9
15
12
26
0
31
6
13
12
14
11
13
-
13
8
10
12
19
14
26
-
26
6
12
16
16
12
11
-
25
10
10
7
12
10
26
0
35
6
14
9
12
10
14
-
2-3-2 Dem
Ind
Rep
31
36
32
25
41
34
37
31
31
27
37
37
64
30
6
54
34
12
21
42
38
32
32
35
27
35
38
37
39
23
20
40
40
32
45
23
34
29
36
41
35
24
Total Answering
Male
Female
Party ID...
Total Answering
Dem-Rep
-1
-9
-10
58
42
-17
-3
-11
14
-19
-2
18
3-1-3 Dem
Ind
Rep
42
10
47
35
13
52
49
8
43
36
10
53
82
10
8
72
11
16
30
12
58
42
8
49
37
9
53
50
12
37
30
12
58
44
16
39
44
7
48
55
9
36
Dem-Rep
-5
-16
-17
73
56
-28
-7
-16
13
-28
-4
19
(812)
(387)
(424)
(671)
(110)
(137)
(320)
(351)
(506)
(294)
(254)
(130)
(252)
(163)
Very liberal
Somewhat liberal
Moderate
Very conservative
10
14
30
26
16
3
7
12
31
31
16
3
13
16
29
22
16
4
9
14
30
28
17
2
19
14
29
15
15
9
16
13
31
18
15
7
7
10
30
34
16
3
10
18
30
23
17
2
9
13
30
29
18
2
13
16
30
23
13
5
7
10
30
34
17
2
9
15
33
26
14
3
11
16
30
23
19
2
16
17
28
21
12
6
Total Liberal
Total Conservative
24
43
19
48
29
38
23
45
32
30
29
33
18
50
28
40
22
47
29
36
17
52
24
40
26
42
33
33
Ideology...
Total Answering
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016

Age
Education
Total
Coll
Grad
Total
Non Coll
Ohio Statewide
Gender/Education
Men
Non Coll
Men
Coll
White/Education
Women
Non - Women
Coll
Coll
White
Non Coll
Evangelical
White
Coll
Total
Evange
lical
White
Evange
lical
Total
18 - 49
50 and
over
-1
-1
-2
-4
-3
-16
-10
-9
-22
-39
-5
-3
-8
-6
-4
-10
-23
10
-19
-15
-30
-50
Respondent age...
Total Answering
(812)
(394)
(409)
(406)
(397)
(192)
(194)
(205)
(212)
(322)
(347)
(229)
(180)
18 - 34
35 - 49
50 - 64
Over 64
(No answer)
25
24
27
23
1
51
49
-
54
46
-
27
30
24
18
1
23
17
31
29
1
21
25
31
22
1
22
33
23
21
1
24
10
32
34
0
33
28
24
14
1
21
18
31
29
-
26
31
23
19
1
22
26
22
29
1
22
26
21
30
-
18 - 49
50 and over
49
50
100
-
100
58
41
40
60
46
53
55
44
34
66
61
39
39
61
57
43
48
51
49
51
(812)
(394)
(409)
(406)
(397)
(192)
(194)
(205)
(212)
(322)
(347)
(229)
(180)
48
52
49
51
46
54
48
52
48
52
100
-
100
-
100
100
49
51
47
53
41
59
42
58
(812)
(394)
(409)
(406)
(397)
(192)
(194)
(205)
(212)
(322)
(347)
(229)
(180)
Strong Dem
Weak Dem
Ind-lean Dem
Ind
Ind-lean Rep
Weak Rep
Strong Rep
(DK/Ref)
24
8
11
10
15
11
21
0
19
8
14
13
16
11
18
0
27
7
8
8
14
12
24
0
22
8
11
13
13
13
20
-
26
7
11
8
17
10
22
0
20
7
14
8
21
11
19
-
15
7
7
18
15
16
22
-
31
7
8
7
13
9
24
0
27
9
15
8
12
11
18
-
19
7
10
8
19
11
25
0
20
8
9
13
15
15
21
-
20
5
7
7
15
11
36
-
11
4
5
8
17
13
41
-
2-3-2 Dem
Ind
Rep
31
36
32
28
43
29
34
30
36
29
37
33
33
35
31
27
43
30
22
40
38
39
29
32
36
35
29
26
37
36
27
36
36
25
29
47
15
30
54
Total Answering
Male
Female
Party ID...
Total Answering
Dem-Rep
-1
-1
-2
-4
-3
-16
-10
-9
-22
-39
3-1-3 Dem
Ind
Rep
42
10
47
42
13
45
42
8
50
41
13
46
44
8
48
41
8
51
30
18
53
47
7
45
51
8
41
36
8
55
36
13
51
31
7
61
21
8
71
Dem-Rep
-5
-3
-8
-6
-4
-10
-23
10
-19
-15
-30
-50
(812)
(394)
(409)
(406)
(397)
(192)
(194)
(205)
(212)
(322)
(347)
(229)
(180)
Very liberal
Somewhat liberal
Moderate
Very conservative
10
14
30
26
16
3
14
13
32
23
16
3
7
15
28
30
17
4
13
15
34
24
13
1
8
13
27
29
19
5
6
11
29
30
20
4
8
12
33
33
12
2
9
15
25
28
18
5
17
18
34
16
14
1
6
14
25
32
19
4
12
14
34
24
14
1
5
6
22
32
32
4
2
5
21
33
37
2
Total Liberal
Total Conservative
24
43
26
39
22
46
28
37
21
48
17
50
21
45
24
46
35
30
19
52
26
38
10
64
7
70
Ideology...
Total Answering
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016
Ohio Statewide
Media Market
Total
Clevel and
Canton OH
OH
OH
Other
-1
11
-12
-7
-3
-5
-10
-10
-11
Respondent age...
Total Answering
(812)
(272)
(175)
(131)
(235)
18 - 34
35 - 49
50 - 64
Over 64
(No answer)
25
24
27
23
1
23
20
30
24
3
26
31
27
14
1
25
21
27
26
-
26
22
24
28
0
18 - 49
50 and over
49
50
44
54
58
42
46
54
48
51
(812)
(272)
(175)
(131)
(235)
48
52
50
50
44
56
53
47
44
56
(812)
(272)
(175)
(131)
(235)
Strong Dem
Weak Dem
Ind-lean Dem
Ind
Ind-lean Rep
Weak Rep
Strong Rep
(DK/Ref)
24
8
11
10
15
11
21
0
26
10
12
9
16
11
15
0
17
7
15
12
13
14
22
1
21
7
11
11
15
12
23
0
27
5
7
10
14
10
26
-
2-3-2 Dem
Ind
Rep
31
36
32
36
38
26
24
40
36
28
37
35
33
31
36
Dem-Rep
-1
11
-12
-7
-3
3-1-3 Dem
Ind
Rep
42
10
47
48
9
42
39
12
49
39
11
49
40
10
50
Dem-Rep
-5
-10
-10
-11
(812)
(272)
(175)
(131)
(235)
Very liberal
Somewhat liberal
Moderate
Very conservative
10
14
30
26
16
3
11
13
32
27
13
5
11
15
28
29
15
2
8
14
35
23
17
3
9
15
26
26
21
3
Total Liberal
Total Conservative
24
43
24
39
26
44
23
40
23
47
Total Answering
Male
Female
Party ID...
Total Answering
Ideology...
Total Answering
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016
Ohio Statewide
Total
95+
90+
85+
80+
0 - 79.99
-1
-11
-5
-2
-1
-1
-5
-16
-8
-5
-3
-10
Respondent age...
Total Answering
(812)
(388)
(500)
(566)
(608)
(204)
18 - 34
35 - 49
50 - 64
Over 64
(No answer)
25
24
27
23
1
15
26
27
30
1
20
26
25
27
1
21
25
27
26
1
22
25
27
26
1
35
21
27
16
1
18 - 49
50 and over
49
50
41
58
46
52
46
53
46
53
55
43
(812)
(388)
(500)
(566)
(608)
(204)
48
52
52
48
50
50
48
52
48
52
48
52
(812)
(388)
(500)
(566)
(608)
(204)
Strong Dem
Weak Dem
Ind-lean Dem
Ind
Ind-lean Rep
Weak Rep
Strong Rep
(DK/Ref)
24
8
11
10
15
11
21
0
23
5
10
7
15
13
26
0
25
6
11
8
14
12
24
0
25
6
11
9
14
11
23
0
25
7
12
10
14
11
22
0
19
11
9
13
18
14
17
0
2-3-2 Dem
Ind
Rep
31
36
32
28
33
39
30
34
35
31
35
34
32
35
33
30
40
30
Dem-Rep
-1
-11
-5
-2
-1
-1
3-1-3 Dem
Ind
Rep
42
10
47
38
7
54
42
8
50
43
9
48
44
10
47
38
13
48
Dem-Rep
-5
-16
-8
-5
-3
-10
(812)
(388)
(500)
(566)
(608)
(204)
Very liberal
Somewhat liberal
Moderate
Very conservative
10
14
30
26
16
3
11
15
26
28
19
2
11
14
29
26
17
3
12
13
29
26
17
3
12
14
29
25
17
3
4
14
32
30
16
4
Total Liberal
Total Conservative
24
43
25
47
25
43
25
43
26
42
19
46
Total Answering
Male
Female
Party ID...
Total Answering
Ideology...
Total Answering
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016

Party
Total
Dem
-1
-5
Ohio Statewide
Ind
Rep
90+
70 - 89.99
30 - 69.99
10 - 29.99
0 - 9.99
100
-100
59
10
-15
-19
-62
100
-10
-100
71
10
-21
-34
-80
Education...
Total Answering
(812)
(254)
(293)
(262)
(252)
(110)
(165)
(82)
(204)
1 - 11th grade
High school graduate
Trade/technical/vocational school
Some college/associates degree
4-year college/bachelor's degree
Post-graduate school/masters/PhD
2
22
3
22
30
20
1
2
27
3
20
25
22
1
2
19
2
25
33
18
0
2
20
3
22
31
20
1
3
23
4
23
27
18
1
3
18
2
21
25
30
2
2
20
1
29
28
21
0
2
27
3
19
31
15
3
1
21
3
18
37
19
1
H.S. or less
Post H.S.
College Graduate
24
25
50
29
23
47
21
27
52
22
25
52
26
27
46
21
23
54
22
29
49
29
22
46
22
21
56
Not College
49
52
48
47
53
44
51
51
44
Religion...
Total Answering
(812)
(254)
(293)
(262)
(252)
(110)
(165)
(82)
(204)
Protestant
Roman Catholic
Mormon
Jewish
Muslim
Atheist
Agnostic
Something else
Nothing in particular
49
24
0
1
1
3
3
2
13
3
46
20
4
1
6
3
1
16
3
39
27
0
0
2
4
4
2
17
4
62
26
1
0
0
1
2
5
2
45
19
4
2
6
2
2
17
3
38
24
1
1
2
7
1
21
5
49
26
1
1
2
3
3
1
10
4
47
27
2
3
4
15
2
60
28
2
1
2
1
4
3
Evangelical
28
22
22
41
22
21
29
25
39
Marital Status...
Total Answering
(812)
(254)
(293)
(262)
(252)
(110)
(165)
(82)
(204)
Married
Single
Separated/divorced
Widowed
62
20
9
7
1
54
24
8
11
2
60
25
10
4
1
73
10
10
6
0
51
27
9
10
3
52
29
12
6
1
66
19
10
5
0
67
16
7
5
4
78
8
8
6
-
Total Non-Married
36
43
39
26
47
47
34
28
22
(812)
(254)
(293)
(262)
(252)
(110)
(165)
(82)
(204)
83
14
2
0
1
0
70
28
1
0
0
0
84
11
2
1
2
0
94
3
3
0
1
0
65
32
1
1
1
1
84
11
2
0
2
1
87
6
5
1
0
0
95
3
0
2
0
96
2
1
1
0
Race...
Total Answering
White
Black
Hispanic
Asian/Pacific Islander
Other
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016

Gender
Total
Men
Race
Women White
Black
Non White
Ohio Statewide
White/Gender
Marital Status
Gender/Marital
White White
Men Women
Marr
ied
Unmarr
ied
Marr
ied
Men
Marr Unmarr
Unmarr
ied
ied
ied Men Women Women
-1
-9
-10
58
42
-17
-3
-11
14
-19
-2
18
-5
-16
-17
73
56
-28
-7
-16
13
-28
-4
19
Education...
Total Answering
(812)
(387)
(424)
(671)
(110)
(137)
(320)
(351)
(506)
(294)
(254)
(130)
(252)
(163)
1 - 11th grade
Post-graduate school/masters/
PhD
2
22
3
22
30
2
22
3
22
31
2
21
3
23
29
2
23
3
21
30
4
19
3
29
26
4
19
2
29
28
1
24
3
22
31
2
22
3
20
30
1
20
3
19
33
4
26
3
28
25
1
21
4
21
32
5
25
1
25
29
1
19
2
17
34
2
26
4
30
22
20
19
21
21
17
15
21
22
24
14
22
14
26
15
H.S. or less
Post H.S.
24
25
25
25
23
25
24
24
24
32
24
31
25
24
24
23
21
22
29
31
22
24
31
26
20
19
28
34
College Graduate
50
50
50
52
43
43
51
52
57
39
54
43
60
36
Not College
49
49
48
48
55
55
49
47
43
60
46
57
39
63
Religion...
Total Answering
(812)
(387)
(424)
(671)
(110)
(137)
(320)
(351)
(506)
(294)
(254)
(130)
(252)
(163)
Protestant
Roman Catholic
Mormon
Jewish
Muslim
Atheist
Agnostic
Something else
49
24
0
1
1
3
3
2
13
3
45
28
1
1
1
4
3
1
14
2
52
21
0
2
1
2
3
2
11
4
47
27
1
2
1
3
3
1
12
3
63
8
2
5
2
19
1
61
11
4
4
0
3
17
1
44
30
1
1
0
5
3
1
13
2
49
25
1
3
1
2
3
2
11
4
52
26
1
1
2
3
2
2
9
3
43
22
0
3
0
4
4
1
20
3
51
30
0
0
1
4
1
1
9
2
34
23
1
1
1
6
6
1
25
3
54
22
1
1
2
2
3
2
9
4
50
22
4
2
3
1
15
3
Evangelical
28
24
32
27
36
35
24
30
29
27
28
16
30
36
(812)
(387)
(424)
(671)
(110)
(137)
(320)
(351)
(506)
(294)
(254)
(130)
(252)
(163)
Married
Single
Separated/divorced
Widowed
answer)
62
20
9
7
66
22
8
4
59
18
11
10
67
18
9
6
37
34
14
11
41
32
12
10
71
19
7
3
63
17
11
9
100
-
55
26
19
100
-
65
24
11
100
-
47
28
25
Total Non-Married
36
34
38
33
59
54
29
36
100
100
100
(812)
(387)
(424)
(671)
(110)
(137)
(320)
(351)
(506)
(294)
(254)
(130)
(252)
(163)
83
14
2
0
1
0
83
13
2
1
2
0
83
15
2
0
0
1
100
-
100
-
80
12
3
5
-
100
-
100
-
89
8
2
1
0
0
75
22
2
0
1
0
90
6
2
1
1
0
70
24
3
1
3
0
88
10
2
0
-
78
21
1
0
0
-
Marital Status...
Total Answering
Race...
Total Answering
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016

Age
Education
Total
Coll
Grad
Total
Non Coll
Ohio Statewide
Gender/Education
Men
Non Coll
Men
Coll
White/Education
Women
Non - Women
Coll
Coll
White
Non Coll
Evangelical
White
Coll
Total
Evange
lical
White
Evange
lical
Total
18 - 49
50 and
over
-1
-1
-2
-4
-3
-16
-10
-9
-22
-39
-5
-3
-8
-6
-4
-10
-23
10
-19
-15
-30
-50
Education...
Total Answering
(812)
(394)
(409)
(406)
(397)
(192)
(194)
(205)
(212)
(322)
(347)
(229)
(180)
1 - 11th grade
2
22
3
22
30
20
1
2
19
1
18
37
23
1
3
24
4
27
24
17
1
60
40
-
4
45
5
46
-
5
45
6
44
-
62
38
-
4
44
5
47
-
58
42
-
3
47
6
44
-
59
41
-
4
25
2
24
28
15
1
3
28
2
21
30
16
1
H.S. or less
Post H.S.
College Graduate
24
25
50
21
19
60
27
31
41
100
49
51
-
50
50
-
100
48
52
-
100
50
50
-
100
29
26
43
30
23
45
Not College
49
40
58
100
100
100
100
55
54
Religion...
Total Answering
(812)
(394)
(409)
(406)
(397)
(192)
(194)
(205)
(212)
(322)
(347)
(229)
(180)
Protestant
Roman Catholic
Mormon
Jewish
Muslim
Atheist
Agnostic
Something else
49
24
0
1
1
3
3
2
13
3
43
25
1
1
1
5
4
2
17
2
54
25
0
2
1
2
2
1
9
4
48
24
1
2
1
4
4
2
12
3
50
25
0
1
1
2
2
1
13
3
46
28
0
0
2
3
2
0
17
1
45
27
1
1
6
4
2
12
3
54
22
0
1
1
2
2
2
10
5
50
21
1
3
2
3
3
2
12
3
47
28
0
1
0
2
2
1
13
4
46
26
1
2
1
4
4
1
11
3
100
-
100
-
Evangelical
28
28
29
24
32
27
22
37
27
30
24
100
100
Marital Status...
Total Answering
(812)
(394)
(409)
(406)
(397)
(192)
(194)
(205)
(212)
(322)
(347)
(229)
(180)
Married
Single
Separated/divorced
Widowed
62
20
9
7
1
63
28
7
2
1
63
12
12
12
2
71
21
6
2
1
54
20
13
12
1
61
22
11
6
-
70
21
6
2
1
48
17
15
18
2
71
20
7
2
1
61
16
13
11
0
73
20
6
2
0
64
14
14
7
2
72
9
14
5
-
Total Non-Married
36
37
35
28
45
39
29
50
28
39
27
35
28
(812)
(394)
(409)
(406)
(397)
(192)
(194)
(205)
(212)
(322)
(347)
(229)
(180)
83
14
2
0
1
0
83
12
4
1
1
0
84
14
1
0
1
0
85
12
2
1
0
0
81
15
2
0
1
0
82
14
2
2
0
84
11
3
1
1
0
80
16
3
0
0
87
12
1
0
0
-
100
-
100
-
79
18
2
0
2
0
100
-
Race...
Total Answering
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016
Ohio Statewide
Media Market
Total
Clevel and
Canton OH
OH
OH
Other
-1
11
-12
-7
-3
-5
-10
-10
-11
Education...
Total Answering
(812)
(272)
(175)
(131)
(235)
1 - 11th grade
2
22
3
22
30
20
1
1
20
3
26
27
22
1
1
21
3
20
33
21
1
3
21
2
19
35
19
2
4
26
2
22
28
18
1
H.S. or less
Post H.S.
College Graduate
24
25
50
20
29
49
22
23
55
24
20
54
29
24
46
Not College
49
50
44
44
54
Religion...
Total Answering
(812)
(272)
(175)
(131)
(235)
Protestant
Roman Catholic
Mormon
Jewish
Muslim
Atheist
Agnostic
Something else
49
24
0
1
1
3
3
2
13
3
45
29
2
1
4
3
1
11
3
58
13
2
1
6
1
2
14
3
45
30
2
1
3
1
14
4
48
24
1
2
1
2
3
2
13
4
Evangelical
28
23
32
25
32
Marital Status...
Total Answering
(812)
(272)
(175)
(131)
(235)
Married
Single
Separated/divorced
Widowed
62
20
9
7
1
58
24
9
8
1
68
15
10
5
2
65
18
7
8
2
62
20
11
7
1
Total Non-Married
36
41
30
33
37
(812)
(272)
(175)
(131)
(235)
83
14
2
0
1
0
80
16
2
0
1
1
82
14
2
1
1
0
80
16
2
1
1
0
87
10
2
0
0
0
Race...
Total Answering
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016
Ohio Statewide
Total
95+
90+
85+
80+
0 - 79.99
-1
-11
-5
-2
-1
-1
-5
-16
-8
-5
-3
-10
Education...
Total Answering
(812)
(388)
(500)
(566)
(608)
(204)
1 - 11th grade
2
22
3
22
30
20
1
1
18
2
23
33
22
1
1
21
2
22
31
21
1
1
21
2
22
32
21
1
2
21
3
22
31
21
1
3
24
3
24
27
19
0
H.S. or less
Post H.S.
College Graduate
24
25
50
19
25
54
22
24
53
22
24
52
23
24
51
27
27
46
Not College
49
45
46
46
47
54
Religion...
Total Answering
(812)
(388)
(500)
(566)
(608)
(204)
Protestant
Roman Catholic
Mormon
Jewish
Muslim
Atheist
Agnostic
Something else
49
24
0
1
1
3
3
2
13
3
50
26
0
2
0
4
2
1
11
2
48
25
0
2
1
5
3
1
12
3
48
25
0
2
1
4
3
1
13
4
47
25
0
2
1
4
3
2
13
4
54
22
1
1
2
1
2
2
13
3
Evangelical
28
28
28
28
27
30
Marital Status...
Total Answering
(812)
(388)
(500)
(566)
(608)
(204)
Married
Single
Separated/divorced
Widowed
62
20
9
7
1
70
17
6
5
2
66
19
6
6
2
65
20
7
6
2
65
19
8
7
2
55
22
15
8
1
Total Non-Married
36
29
32
34
33
44
(812)
(388)
(500)
(566)
(608)
(204)
83
14
2
0
1
0
88
10
1
0
0
85
12
2
0
0
0
84
13
2
0
1
0
84
13
2
0
1
0
79
16
1
1
1
1
Race...
Total Answering
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016

Party
Total
Dem
-1
-5
Ohio Statewide
Ind
Rep
90+
70 - 89.99
30 - 69.99
10 - 29.99
0 - 9.99
100
-100
59
10
-15
-19
-62
100
-10
-100
71
10
-21
-34
-80
(812)
(254)
(293)
(262)
(252)
(110)
(165)
(82)
(204)
33
22
16
11
8
5
6
39
16
15
9
9
7
6
35
24
16
12
5
3
5
27
24
17
12
10
5
6
43
20
14
9
4
5
4
41
22
12
9
6
6
5
29
21
16
10
13
4
7
22
25
16
14
9
3
10
25
23
21
13
8
5
5
(812)
(254)
(293)
(262)
(252)
(110)
(165)
(82)
(204)
25
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
8
31
3
2
5
3
2
3
4
4
10
64
21
6
5
8
6
5
6
8
10
25
51
7
5
5
5
6
6
5
4
6
100
43
57
-
27
23
24
27
-
51
49
-
100
-
(812)
(254)
(293)
(262)
(252)
(110)
(165)
(82)
(204)
0
0
1
2
3
5
6
8
13
62
1
0
1
3
6
3
10
16
60
0
0
1
2
4
6
8
6
14
58
0
1
2
2
3
6
9
9
68
0
0
1
1
4
4
3
6
13
68
1
2
4
3
12
8
11
18
42
2
3
4
6
11
14
18
42
1
0
2
1
6
9
11
14
56
0
0
1
2
1
3
4
7
83
Media Market...
Total Answering
Cleveland-Akron Canton OH
Columbus OH
Cincinnati OH
Dayton OH
Toledo OH
Youngstown OH
Other
TargetSmart Partisanship Score...

Total Answering
0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100
TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score...

Total Answering
0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016

Gender
Total
Men
Race
Women White
Black
Non White
Ohio Statewide
White/Gender
Marital Status
Gender/Marital
White White
Men Women
Marr
ied
Unmarr
ied
Marr
ied
Men
Marr Unmarr
Unmarr
ied
ied
ied Men Women Women
-1
-9
-10
58
42
-17
-3
-11
14
-19
-2
18
-5
-16
-17
73
56
-28
-7
-16
13
-28
-4
19
(812)
(387)
(424)
(671)
(110)
(137)
(320)
(351)
(506)
(294)
(254)
(130)
(252)
(163)
33
22
16
11
8
5
6
35
20
18
11
5
5
5
32
23
14
10
10
5
6
32
21
15
11
9
5
6
38
21
19
12
1
4
4
38
22
19
11
2
3
5
34
21
17
11
6
5
5
31
22
14
11
12
5
6
31
24
17
11
7
5
6
38
18
15
11
8
5
6
33
22
19
10
4
6
6
39
16
16
15
8
3
4
29
25
15
11
11
4
6
37
19
13
8
9
6
7
(812)
(387)
(424)
(671)
(110)
(137)
(320)
(351)
(506)
(294)
(254)
(130)
(252)
(163)
25
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
8
31
27
5
4
8
4
5
4
7
7
28
24
5
5
3
5
4
6
5
8
34
29
6
5
6
5
5
5
6
7
24
4
1
1
3
1
2
4
3
7
74
6
1
2
4
1
4
6
4
8
63
31
7
5
7
5
5
4
7
7
22
27
6
6
4
5
5
7
6
8
26
31
5
5
6
4
5
6
5
6
25
16
5
3
4
5
5
4
7
11
40
34
5
6
7
5
4
4
7
6
21
14
7
2
8
4
7
5
5
9
39
29
6
5
5
4
5
8
3
6
29
17
3
4
1
6
4
4
8
12
41
Media Market...
Total Answering
Columbus OH
Cincinnati OH
Dayton OH
Toledo OH
Youngstown OH
Other

Total Answering
0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100

Total Answering
(812)
(387)
(424)
(671)
(110)
(137)
(320)
(351)
(506)
(294)
(254)
(130)
(252)
(163)
0
0
1
2
3
5
6
8
13
62
0
1
2
3
5
6
8
11
64
0
0
1
1
3
5
5
9
16
60
0
0
1
2
3
4
6
8
12
64
1
1
1
3
11
4
8
17
53
1
1
1
4
10
5
8
19
51
0
1
2
4
3
6
8
9
66
0
0
1
1
2
4
6
9
15
61
0
0
1
1
3
4
5
8
12
66
1
1
2
4
7
7
9
15
54
0
1
2
3
3
5
8
11
67
1
1
3
4
7
8
8
10
58
0
1
1
2
4
5
8
14
65
1
1
2
3
8
6
10
19
51
0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016

Age
Education
Total
Coll
Grad
Total
Non Coll
Ohio Statewide
Gender/Education
Men
Non Coll
Men
Coll
White/Education
Women
Non - Women
Coll
Coll
White
Non Coll
Evangelical
White
Coll
Total
Evange
lical
White
Evange
lical
Total
18 - 49
50 and
over
-1
-1
-2
-4
-3
-16
-10
-9
-22
-39
-5
-3
-8
-6
-4
-10
-23
10
-19
-15
-30
-50
(812)
(394)
(409)
(406)
(397)
(192)
(194)
(205)
(212)
(322)
(347)
(229)
(180)
33
22
16
11
8
5
6
30
26
15
12
7
4
6
36
18
17
10
9
6
5
33
24
17
11
8
3
5
34
19
15
11
8
6
7
37
19
13
11
5
7
7
33
20
23
11
6
3
4
31
19
16
11
10
6
7
33
27
12
10
10
3
5
32
19
15
10
9
7
7
33
24
16
11
9
3
5
28
24
15
13
8
4
8
26
27
13
12
9
4
8
(812)
(394)
(409)
(406)
(397)
(192)
(194)
(205)
(212)
(322)
(347)
(229)
(180)
25
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
8
31
21
5
5
6
5
6
7
8
10
26
30
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
6
35
28
5
4
4
4
6
5
7
8
28
22
5
5
7
5
3
6
5
7
34
22
6
5
10
4
5
5
6
7
30
32
5
4
5
5
6
4
7
7
25
23
4
6
5
6
2
6
5
7
37
24
5
5
2
4
7
7
6
9
31
27
6
6
9
6
3
5
6
6
26
31
6
5
3
5
7
5
7
9
23
35
5
4
6
4
7
5
4
6
25
40
5
4
7
5
7
6
4
7
15
Media Market...
Total Answering
Columbus OH
Cincinnati OH
Dayton OH
Toledo OH
Youngstown OH
Other

Total Answering
0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100

Total Answering
0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100
(812)
(394)
(409)
(406)
(397)
(192)
(194)
(205)
(212)
(322)
(347)
(229)
(180)
0
0
1
2
3
5
6
8
13
62
0
1
2
4
5
7
9
12
59
0
0
1
1
3
5
5
7
14
64
0
0
1
1
3
4
7
7
12
65
0
1
2
4
6
5
10
14
58
0
1
3
3
4
5
8
11
64
0
1
2
4
5
7
7
10
64
1
1
2
4
8
5
11
17
53
0
1
1
2
3
6
7
14
66
0
1
2
3
5
5
10
13
61
0
0
1
1
3
3
7
7
12
66
1
1
2
3
5
4
12
12
61
0
1
2
4
3
4
12
9
66
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016
Ohio Statewide
Media Market
Total
Clevel and
Canton OH
OH
OH
Other
-1
11
-12
-7
-3
-5
-10
-10
-11
(812)
(272)
(175)
(131)
(235)
33
22
16
11
8
5
6
100
-
100
-
100
-
37
26
17
19
(812)
(272)
(175)
(131)
(235)
25
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
8
31
19
3
3
6
4
2
5
7
10
40
27
7
4
5
4
6
5
5
9
28
32
4
6
4
4
5
6
4
6
27
27
6
7
5
6
6
6
7
5
24
(812)
(272)
(175)
(131)
(235)
0
0
1
2
3
5
6
8
13
62
0
1
1
3
5
5
8
15
62
0
1
2
2
5
2
9
12
68
1
2
4
4
8
4
12
65
0
0
1
2
4
5
8
11
13
55
Media Market...
Total Answering
Columbus OH
Cincinnati OH
Dayton OH
Toledo OH
Youngstown OH
Other

Total Answering
0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100

Total Answering
0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100
targetsmart.com
October 3-6, 2016
Ohio Statewide
Total
95+
90+
85+
80+
0 - 79.99
-1
-11
-5
-2
-1
-1
-5
-16
-8
-5
-3
-10
(812)
(388)
(500)
(566)
(608)
(204)
33
22
16
11
8
5
6
36
22
17
10
7
5
4
34
24
17
10
7
5
4
34
23
16
10
7
5
5
34
23
17
10
7
5
5
31
18
15
14
10
5
7
(812)
(388)
(500)
(566)
(608)
(204)
25
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
8
31
37
5
4
3
3
2
3
4
3
34
34
5
4
4
3
3
4
4
5
34
31
5
4
4
3
4
4
5
5
33
30
5
5
4
3
4
5
5
6
34
11
6
6
8
9
7
8
8
14
23
(812)
(388)
(500)
(566)
(608)
(204)
0
0
1
2
3
5
6
8
13
62
100
100
12
88
18
82
0
1
4
7
12
20
23
33
-
Media Market...
Total Answering
Columbus OH
Cincinnati OH
Dayton OH
Toledo OH
Youngstown OH
Other

Total Answering
0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100

Total Answering
0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100
targetsmart.com

TargetSmart - William & Mary Poll - Ohio Statewide Wave 2

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: 10/08/2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll

Poll Toplines ................................................................................................................................................. 3

Poll Methodology ....................................................................................................................................... 13

Poll Crosstabs ............................................................................................................................................. 14

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

TargetSmart Communications LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

TargetSmart Communications LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

Combined Two-Way Presidential Vote

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

TargetSmart Communications LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

(Effective Base: 646)

TargetSmart Communications LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

TargetSmart Communications LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

TargetSmart Communications LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

What is the last year of schooling that you have completed?

TargetSmart Communications LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

What is your race?

TargetSmart Partisan Score

TargetSmart Communications LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll

2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

Four-Way Presidential Vote...

Total Hillary Clinton

Total (Would not vote)

Total Clinton - Total Trump

Two-Way Presidential Vote...

Total Hillary Clinton

Total (Would not vote)

Total Clinton - Total Trump

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

Four-Way Presidential Vote...

Total Hillary Clinton

Total (Would not vote)

Total Clinton - Total Trump

Two-Way Presidential Vote...

Total Hillary Clinton

Total (Would not vote)

Total Clinton - Total Trump

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005