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Presentations & Publications

Project Civil Strife Publications

“An Empirical Assessment of the Role of Emotions and Behavior in Conflict using Automatically Generated Data.” All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace, Stephen M. Shellman and  Sean O’Brien. Forthcoming July 2013.

 "Shifting Sands: Explaining and Predicting Phase Shifts by Dissident Organizations." Stephen M. Shellman, Brian Levey and Joseph Young. Journal of Peace Research 50(3): 319-336, 2013.

“Disaggregating Actors in Intrastate Conflict” Stephen M. Shellman, with Clare Hatfield, & Maggie Mills. Journal of Peace Research 47(1), 2010.

“Coding Disaggregated Conflict: Machine Processing the Behavior of Substate Actors Over Time and Space." Political Analysis 16(4): 464-77, 2008.

“The New School of Political Conflict: From Attributes to Behavior & Why Policymakers Will Care.” Will H. Moore & Stephen M. Shellman, 2008.

“Fair & Balanced or Fit to Print: The Effects of Source Bias on Event Data Analysis.” Stephen M. Shellman, Brandon Stewart, & Andrew Reeves, 2008. Revise & Resubmit.

“How Have You Killed Lately? A Substitution Model of Domestic Terrorism in India 1980-2005.” Victor Asal & Stephen M. Shellman, 2008. Revising for journal submission.  

“Nickel & DIMEing the Adversary: Does it work or PMESII them off?” Stephen M. Shellman, Cale D. Horne, and Brandon M Stewart, 2008. Presented at ISA in March, currently revising.

“Regional Sticks: The Effects of President’s Rule on Regional Terrorism in India, 1980-2005.” Victor H. Asal, Stephen M. Shellman, & Brandon Stewart. Presented at Peace Science in November 2008, currently revising.

“The New School of Political Conflict: From Attributes to Behavior & Why Policymakers Will Care.” Will H. Moore & Stephen M. Shellman, 2008. Under Review

“Process Matters: Conflict & Cooperation in Sequential Government-Dissident Interactions.” Stephen M. Shellman. Security Studies 15(4): 563-99, 2007

“Leaders & Their Motivations: Explaining Government-Dissident Conflict-Cooperation Processes.” Stephen M. Shellman. Conflict Management & Peace Science 23(1): 73-90, 2006.

“Quantifying Violence and Nonviolence: Terrorism & Political Violence Datasets.” Stephen M. Shellman. E-Extreme Electronic Newsletter of the European Consortium for Political Research Standing Group on Extremism & Democracy, 2006.

“Time Series Intervals and Statistical Inference: The Effects of Temporal Aggregation on Event Data Analysis.” Stephen M. Shellman. Political Analysis 12(1): 97-104, 2004.

“Measuring the Intensity of Intranational Political Interactions Event Data: Two Interval‑Like Scales.” Stephen M. Shellman. International Interactions 30(2): 109-141, 2004.

Intelligent Handling of Unstructured Text Publications

“Machine Coding Nonstate Actors’ Behavior in Intrastate Conflict.” Stephen M. Shellman, 2008. Forthcoming in Political Analysis

S.E.V.E.R.E. Publications

“Supporting the Bomb: A Survey of Iranian Public Opinion.” Christine Fair & Stephen M. Shellman. Forthcoming in Contemporary Security Policy 25(3), 2008.

“Consenting to a Child’s Jihad.” Victor Asal, Christine Fair, & Stephen M. Shellman.  Forthcoming inStudies in Conflict & Terrorism 31(12), 2008.

Forced Migration Publications

“Three Decades of Forced Migration: From Emprirical Foundations to Policy Implications.” Andrea Arce-Trigatti, Will H. Moore, & Stephen M. Shellman, 2008. Working Manuscript.

“Whither Will They Go? A Global Study of Refugees’ Destinations, 1965-1995.” Will H. Moore & Stephen M. Shellman. International Studies Quarterly 51(4), 2007.

“Predicting Risk Factors Associated with Forced Migration: An Early Warning Model of Haitian Flight.” Stephen M. Shellman & Brandon Stewart. Civil Wars, 9(2): 174-99, 2007.

“Political Persecution or Economic Deprivation? A Time-Series Analysis of Haitian Migration to the United States” Stephen M. Shellman & Brandon Stewart. Conflict Management & Peace Science 24(2): 121-37, 2007.

“Refugee or Internally Displaced? To Where Should One Flee?” Will H. Moore & Stephen M. Shellman.Comparative Political Studies 39(5): 599-622, 2006.

“Fear of Persecution: Forced Migration, 1952-1995.” Will H. Moore & Stephen M. Shellman.  Journal of Conflict Resolution 48(5): 723-745, 2004.

Invited Presentations on Project Civil Strife

“Project Civil Strife: Machine Coded Event Data.” Stephen M. Shellman. Presented at the Operating within the Human Dimension: the Collection/Analysis Challenge conference, sponsored by DOD (Joint Staff, STRATCOM/GISC, DDRE, OUSDI, AS&C) and DHS, April 24-25, 2008 .

“The Rational Terrorist.” Stephen M. Shellman. Terrorism Symposium, Shorter College, Rome, GA, March 4, 2008.

“Modeling Terror & Repression.” Stephen M. Shellman. Presented at the Modeling & Visualizing Conflict Conference, sponsored by the United States Department of Defense, Strategic Command, and Department of Homeland Security. January 23-25, 2008. 

“How Have You Killed Lately? A Substitution Model of Terrorist Tactics In India 1980-2005.” * Stephen M. Shellman. Columbia University International Politics Seminar, April 19, 2007.
*Also presented in the Department of Political Science at the University of South Carolina. February 2, 2007.

“Project Civil Strife: Political Violence and Terrorism Events Data Sets.” Stephen M. Shellman. American Political Science Association (APSA) Short Course on Conflict Data. Sponsored by the APSA Task Force on Political Violence & Terrorism. Philadelphia, PA, August 30, 2006.